Mastadon and Bluesky are going no where. both are slowly contracting from a peak that was like 1% of X user activity. most people made a protest (against X) account didn’t post much and many just go back to X later anyway. These alternatives are like GAB on the right except I remember people actually used GAB, but very few seriously thought it was a way to topple twitter other than the GAB founder (and he only thought that for a short time). Difference was that GAB actually let people talk about topics and events that weren’t allowed on twitter whereas bluesky people just don’t like orange man and Elon and relative to more free discussion that isn’t just not going to topple X but not even going to make a user population stable service. mastadon combines the discord moderator power tripping issue and untenable user fragmentation of tumbler so bluesky at least doesn’t seem to have these issues maybe a little ban happy though.